目前丁(ding)(ding)(ding)二烯(xi)港口(kou)庫存略高但生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)利(li)潤一(yi)般,海外(wai)丁(ding)(ding)(ding)二烯(xi)價格整(zheng)體偏高對國內丁(ding)(ding)(ding)二烯(xi)橡(xiang)膠(jiao)價格也(ye)具有一(yi)定的支撐(cheng)。截(jie)至(zhi)10月(yue)13日,上海石(shi)化丁(ding)(ding)(ding)二烯(xi)價格為(wei)(wei)8600元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(0),轉化為(wei)(wei)順(shun)(shun)丁(ding)(ding)(ding)橡(xiang)膠(jiao)成本(ben)為(wei)(wei)11272元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。順(shun)(shun)丁(ding)(ding)(ding)橡(xiang)膠(jiao)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)及開工(gong)率(lv):截(jie)至(zhi)10月(yue)13日,高順(shun)(shun)丁(ding)(ding)(ding)開工(gong)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)70.22%(+1.72%),高順(shun)(shun)丁(ding)(ding)(ding)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)為(wei)(wei)25690噸(dun)(dun)(+630)。丁(ding)(ding)(ding)二烯(xi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)利(li)潤為(wei)(wei)1428元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(-96),順(shun)(shun)丁(ding)(ding)(ding)橡(xiang)膠(jiao)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)利(li)潤為(wei)(wei)1569元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(-409);丁(ding)(ding)(ding)苯橡(xiang)膠(jiao)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)利(li)潤1308元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(-298)
截至(zhi)10月13日(ri),上游丁二烯(xi)港庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)34100噸(dun)(+4800);順丁橡(xiang)膠生(sheng)產企業庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)26600噸(dun)(+3400);順丁橡(xiang)膠貿(mao)易(yi)商庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)3300噸(dun)(+1005)。順丁橡(xiang)膠社(she)會庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)處于較低水平,上游庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)略高,近五年總庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)處于中間水平。
預計揚子(zi)石化將于本周末重啟,四川石化順(shun)丁(ding)裝(zhuang)置將繼續(xu)停車(che)。預計下(xia)周該裝(zhuang)置的(de)開(kai)工率(lv)(lv)將逐月(yue)或略有(you)上升。國內(nei)輪胎(tai)工程總(zong)體(ti)改善,國內(nei)輪胎(tai)工廠節后開(kai)工率(lv)(lv)繼續(xu)上升,由于下(xia)游輪胎(tai)工廠成品(pin)庫存較好,疊加生產利潤繼續(xu),同時,在國內(nei)強勁的(de)輪胎(tai)出口需求的(de)支持下(xia),預計輪胎(tai)工廠將保持較高的(de)開(kai)工率(lv)(lv)。
上游原料丁(ding)二烯價格穩(wen)定,順丁(ding)橡膠(jiao)成(cheng)本(ben)支撐依然存在。本(ben)周,由(you)于(yu)楊子石化順丁(ding)裝置重啟,供應有望(wang)反彈。由(you)于(yu)下(xia)游輪胎廠成(cheng)品庫存較(jiao)好(hao),需求(qiu)有望(wang)保(bao)持較(jiao)高的(de)開工率,再(zai)加(jia)上周邊天然橡膠(jiao)價格的(de)帶(dai)動,預計下(xia)周順丁(ding)橡膠(jiao)價格波(bo)動較(jiao)大,但空間有限。